More Americans than usual have been changing parties. Why?

Abstract

As we head into 2022, expect a deluge of predictions about the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. Will Democrats maintain, widen or lose their slight advantage in the Senate? Will there be a “red wave” overtaking the House? We’ll hear about voter turnout, the impact of independent and third-party candidates, and gerrymandering. What we won’t hear much about is Republicans becoming Democrats or Democrats becoming Republicans. In fact, political tactics like gerrymandering largely assume that people don’t switch parties. But that’s wrong. As we show, party identities are more fluid than most people assume — especially during periods of high political turbulence, like ours.